Mittwoch, 13. Mai 2009

Psychological Commitment to another major fall in equity markets

Recently I read the Jeremy Grantham's investment letter about the current situation. A very interesting piece, which you may download at:

http://www.gmo.com/America/MyHome/default.htm

He especially made an interesting point about the current predictions of many professionals, who see a pull-back coming. By sure there is a possibility for the market to leave these elevated levels and decline towards the march lows, but under a psychological aspect it could be mere wishing of some specialists.

"Investors have missed some great investment opportunities, and now
they have a psychological commitment to another major fall to add to any
intellectual reasons you may have had. There is a chance it will do so, but if it
does not and it continues to rise, extended praying may not make you as much
money as you would like. "


Today banking stocks are down by nearly 10% and have by now erased all profits of the last two weeks. Many people in my office scream about the beginning of the next downward wave. I rather think about to higher my stake in some financial stocks regarding a prolonged "sucker" rally in the stock markets.

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